We welcomed the opportunity to work with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to model scenarios from narratives designed by AEMO and its stakeholders for this Integrated System Plan (ISP).
This submission provides recommendations on how the Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) might inform the ISP and further strengthen and future-proof it. A robust ISP that reflects the electricity sector’s vital role in economy-wide decarbonisation can better support the sector’s evolution.
Further, it can help enable Australia to act to keep the Paris Agreement goals within reach and make the most of potential opportunities available as the world transitions to an economy with net zero emissions. This is especially urgent given the window to keep global warming within 1.5°C is still open, but narrowing.
Submission summary
Climateworks recommends multiple scenarios are given equal weight within the ISP to determine the Optimal Development Path. Climateworks further recommends that AEMO commission a wider range of analysis to explore a greater range of possible futures – this could include additional scenarios, sensitivity analyses or other types of foresighting of potential changes. This would:
- improve the flexibility of the process to create the ISP to take full account of the potential for further disruptive change and allow the National Electricity Market (NEM) to keep pace with a rapidly transforming energy sector.
- enable well-timed transmission investment and address risks associated with long-lead-time transmission assets constraining generation, especially if existing work under-predicts the real rate of system change. Such constraints could limit energy and industry from unlocking emerging economic opportunities such as exports of green hydrogen, green steel and similar products.
